Iran’s Missile Arsenal – Akhbar Alaan

This research is exclusive to Akhbar Alaan

Executive Summary

With the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Iran began supporting the Syrian regime politically and militarily, arming the regime with missiles became one of the most prominent aspects of this support. Iran transferred advanced missile technologies to Syria, which enhanced the regime’s stockpile of ballistic missiles and contributed to providing technological expertise. These missiles were used in precise strikes against the armed opposition, especially in vital and strategic areas such as Deir Ezzor, which gained great importance in Iranian strategy due to its geographical location near the Iraqi border.                             

In Deir Ezzor, Iran built a network of warehouses and military centers to store missiles and advanced weapons, and even built tunnels near the Iraqi-Syrian border. This arsenal enabled the Syrian regime to achieve temporary military victories against the armed opposition, but the presence of Iranian missiles in the region led to an escalation of confrontations with Israel, which launched intensive air strikes on Iranian missile sites. Iranian missiles in Deir Ezzor and other Syrian areas were not only used to achieve military objectives, but also became a tool to send regional messages that threaten Israel and increase regional tensions. This Iranian military role has contributed to prolonging the conflict and increasing instability in the region.     

This hypothesis leads us to an in-depth study of how Iranian missiles have affected the course of the Syrian war, and how they have been used as a tool to achieve Iran’s regional goals, making it necessary to consider ways to confront them to limit their future repercussions. 

Iran’s missile arsenal

Iran has one of the largest missile arsenals in the Middle East, having developed its missile capabilities independently due to sanctions imposed on it and its inability to obtain advanced weapons from abroad. Since the late 1980s, Iran has invested heavily in developing missile technology, which has enabled it to produce missiles of various ranges, including short- and medium-range missiles, in addition to working on developing long-range missiles.

One of Iran’s main goals was to confirm its military deterrence capability in the face of external threats, especially from the United States and Israel.

This arsenal includes ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and guided missiles. The most prominent missiles that Iran relies on are:

• Shahab missiles: These include different models, such as the “Shahab-1” and “Shahab-3”. The “Shahab-3” is a medium-range missile believed to have a range of between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometers, making it capable of reaching targets in Israel and the Gulf states.
• Zolfaghar missiles: A short-range ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads and is considered one of the most accurate missiles in the Iranian arsenal.
• Fateh-110 missiles: A short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missile used to hit specific targets with high precision, and has proven effective in recent conflicts in Syria.

Iran relied on a combination of domestic and foreign technology in the early stages of developing its missile arsenal. Initially, Iran relied heavily on foreign aid, particularly from North Korea and China, but over time, it developed its industrial infrastructure to become capable of producing missiles domestically.

One of the notable features of Iranian missiles is the focus on improving accuracy, especially with the development of missile guidance technology. Iranian missiles have become more capable of hitting their targets with precision, a dangerous development given their targeting of civilian targets or vital infrastructure in regional countries.

Iran has also begun to develop its capabilities to produce missiles with multiple warheads and advanced penetration capabilities to evade missile defenses, making them more dangerous and difficult to deal with militarily.

For Iran, missiles are a crucial strategic tool for several reasons. They are a means of deterrence, allowing Iran to directly threaten its neighbors without having to rely entirely on a strong air force. Second, missiles allow Iran to cross geographical borders and directly threaten its opponents, especially Israel and the Gulf States.

 

Missiles are also considered a tool for political blackmail.

Iran threatens to use these missiles in the event of any military attack, which creates a state of mutual deterrence and increases the cost of any potential confrontation with regional or international powers.

In the Syrian conflict, Iran has used its missiles to achieve its political and military goals. Iranian missiles have helped consolidate the Syrian regime in places that were threatened with collapse, and have given Iran direct influence in the conflict, as it has been able to direct qualitative strikes against opponents of the regime and even against international or Israeli forces intervening in Syria.

 

Iran’s military support for the Syrian regime with missiles and advanced weapons

Since its intervention in Syria in coordination with the Syrian regime, Iran has provided significant support to the Syrian regime, which has not been limited to financial aid or military advisors only, but has extended to include providing the Syrian regime with missiles and advanced weapons, and Iranian missiles have become a major tool in the Syrian regime’s arsenal, as they have been used to enhance the capabilities of the Syrian army in confronting the armed opposition.

Iran has provided the Syrian regime with short- and medium-range ballistic missiles such as the “Fateh-110” and “Zulfiqar”. These missiles have played an important role in targeting areas that were under the control of the opposition. In areas such as Aleppo and the Damascus countryside, Iranian missiles have been used to strike strongholds of the armed opposition, causing widespread destruction and increasing human losses.

In addition to transferring missiles, Iran has provided the Syrian regime with the technical expertise necessary to launch and guide these missiles accurately. Iranian forces or affiliated militias such as Hezbollah have been stationed in strategic locations inside Syria, giving them the ability to control this missile arsenal and use it to impose a new balance of power on the ground. Concrete examples of the use of Iranian missiles in Syria:

1. Attacks on opposition areas: At crucial times in the conflict, such as the major battle of Aleppo in 2016, Iranian missiles were used to strike positions of the armed opposition. These missiles were capable of destroying the opposition’s vital infrastructure, weakening its ability to continue fighting.
2. Attacks on the T-4 military airport: In 2018, Israel launched airstrikes on the T-4 military airport after reports that Iran had transferred missiles to this airport for use against Israel. This incident was part of a series of strikes targeting Iranian missile sites in Syria, demonstrating how Iranian missiles in Syria have become part of the broader regional conflict.
3. Attack on Deir Ezzor in 2017: Iran launched ballistic missiles from within its territory towards ISIS positions in the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor. In this attack, in which Iran used “Zulfiqar” missiles, it was a response to terrorist attacks targeting Tehran. Although the attack was directed against ISIS, it demonstrated Iran’s ability to use its long-range missiles to strike targets inside Syria from outside its borders.

 

Analysis of the military dimension:

Iranian missiles played a dual role in Syria. On the one hand, they helped the Syrian regime regain control of many strategic areas, where the armed opposition was sometimes tactically superior, thanks to the use of conventional weapons. However, the entry of Iranian missiles changed the equation, as they were used to strike opposition sites from long distances and with high accuracy, making it difficult for the opposition to organize an effective defense.

On the other hand, the presence of Iranian missiles led to an escalation of regional tensions, especially with Israel, as Israel considers the presence of Iranian missiles in Syria, especially in southern Syria near the Golan Heights, a strategic threat. This prompted it to launch several airstrikes on Iranian sites and missile stores in Syria. Iranian missiles made Syria an arena for direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, which further complicated the conflict and led to additional interventions by regional and international powers.

In addition, Iran used missiles to strengthen the power of its allied militias, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, which further complicated the battlefield and prolonged the war.

 

The impact of the use of Iranian missiles on Syrian civilians

The use of Iranian missiles in the Syrian conflict has had a catastrophic impact on civilians, as these missiles have been used to strike opposition-controlled urban areas, destroying civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and homes.

In Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, and Idlib, the missiles have caused massive human losses, as they were not accurate enough to distinguish between military and civilian targets. These attacks have led to mass displacement of the population and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, as civilians have been forced to flee the targeted areas due to the risk of continuous shelling.

In addition to the material losses, Iranian missiles have contributed to the social and psychological destabilization of Syrian society. Civilians no longer feel safe even in areas that were far from traditional front lines, as missile strikes have extended to include areas that were considered relatively safe. These repeated attacks have reinforced the sense of helplessness among civilians who find themselves trapped between regime and opposition forces, under direct or indirect targeting.

 

The impact of Iranian missiles on regional stability

The presence of Iranian missiles in Syria has not only affected the internal conflict, but has also increased tension in regional relations. Israel considers the presence of these missiles a strategic threat, especially missiles directed at the occupied Golan Heights or those that could be used to strike deep inside Israel.

In this context, Israel has launched dozens of airstrikes on Iranian sites in Syria, targeting weapons depots and launch sites believed to contain ballistic missiles. This has led to an escalation of the situation between Israel and Iran on Syrian soil, increasing the possibility of a wider confrontation in the region.

The Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, view the Iranian missile presence in Syria as part of Tehran’s regional hegemony project. The missiles that reach the Houthis in Yemen, who are believed to be supported by Iran, are an extension of this threat. With the escalation of the conflict in Syria and the expansion of Iran’s influence, there is growing concern in the Gulf that Iranian missiles may be used to expand Tehran’s influence and establish its military presence in the Arab Levant, which further complicates the security balances in the region.

 

Escalation of confrontations with Israel

The tension between Israel and Iran in Syria has reached its peak as a result of the presence of Iranian missiles, as Iran has exploited Syrian territory to transport and store advanced missiles that could be used against Israel, which has raised great concern among the Israeli leadership.

The Israeli response was swift and decisive, with continuous targeting of Iranian missile sites and affiliated militias, such as Hezbollah. In May 2018, Israel launched one of the largest airstrikes on Iranian sites in Syria in response to the launching of missiles from Syrian territory towards the Golan Heights. This mutual escalation demonstrated how the presence of Iranian missiles in Syria could ignite a wider regional conflict.

 

Spurring an arms race:

The presence of Iranian missiles in Syria has contributed to spurring a new arms race in the region. Countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia have begun to modernize their defensive and offensive capabilities to confront the Iranian threat. For example, Israel has strengthened air defense systems such as the Iron Dome and David’s Sling to protect its territory from missile attacks. In contrast, Iran continues to improve its missile technology and increase the range and accuracy of these missiles, deepening the arms race that threatens the stability of the region.

The Iranian role in escalating tensions with international forces:

Iran has not only used missiles against the Syrian opposition or in its confrontation with Israel, but has also targeted international forces present in Syria. In 2020, Iranian forces targeted the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq, which housed American forces, with ballistic missiles in retaliation for the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. This attack, although it took place in Iraq, highlights the threat posed by Iranian missiles to foreign forces deployed in the region, including Syria. The use of missiles against international forces further complicates the situation in Syria and puts the region at risk of wider conflicts with major powers such as the United States.

In short, the effects of Iranian missiles were not limited to the battle between the Syrian regime and the opposition, but extended to include other countries, contributing to the escalation of regional tensions, and increasing security risks in the Middle East in general.

 

Examples of Iranian missiles targeting international forces in Syria

1. Attacks on the Tanf base (2017 and 2018):

○ First attack (April 2017): In April 2017, Iran launched an attack with Fateh-110 missiles on the Tanf military base, which was under the management of the US-led international coalition and is located in the eastern desert region of Syria. The attack did not cause significant damage, but it was a clear message from Iran of its ability to strike international military sites in Syria.

○ Second attack (February 2018): In February 2018, Iran launched another attack on the same base with short-range missiles. This time the attack was more precise and resulted in damage to the site. The attack was part of a series of attacks targeting international coalition sites east of the Euphrates.

2. Attacks on the Ain al-Assad base (2020):

○ Attack on the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq: Although this attack took place in Iraq and not Syria, it reflects the extent of the escalation witnessed in the region. The ballistic missile attack by Iran came as a response to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. The Ain al-Assad base housed American forces, and the attack demonstrated Iran’s ability to carry out missile operations against international interests in the region. This type of attack further complicates the situation in Syria and reflects Iran’s readiness to target international forces there.

3. Attacks on the Conoco Base (2020):

○ Missile attack: In 2020, Iran or allied militias targeted the Conoco gas base in northeastern Syria, which was under the control of the international coalition forces. The missile attack demonstrated how Iranian missiles can be used to directly threaten international military sites.

4. Attacks on coalition sites east of the Euphrates (2021):

○ Repeated attacks: In 2021, the areas east of the Euphrates witnessed a series of missile attacks on international coalition sites. These attacks targeted military bases and weapons depots, prompting the coalition to respond with military and defensive operations. The attacks on American and other coalition forces were partly motivated by Iran’s desire to increase pressure on the international presence in Syria.

Attacks against the coalition in the east of the Euphrates continue every period, for different reasons and with multiple messages in the world

 

The impact of these attacks on the military situation in Syria

The attacks on international forces and military sites reflect the ongoing escalation in the Syrian conflict, as Iran seeks to assert its influence by using missiles as a tool for military pressure. These attacks have not only escalated tensions between Iran and international powers, but have also contributed to enhancing instability in the region and made the military situation more complex.

The use of missiles as a tool for pressure on international forces reflects the extent of the overlap of regional and international dimensions in the Syrian conflict and increases fears of greater escalation in the future.

 

Distinguishing between the types of missiles used by Iran in Syria:

Iranian missiles in Syria include multiple types with different capabilities, and are mainly classified into short-range missiles and long-range missiles. Each type of these missiles has different effects and usage strategies, and has contributed differently to the Syrian conflict.

1. Short-range missiles:
2. Missiles used:

• Fateh-110: A short-range ballistic missile with a range of 200-300 km, designed to accurately hit fixed targets.
• Zolfaghar: A short-range ballistic missile with the ability to carry multiple warheads, used to hit targets of strategic value.

1. Military impact:
2. Military Impact:

• Precise and Direct Strikes: Short-range missiles, such as the Fateh-110 and Zolfaqar, are used to target important military sites belonging to the opposition or strategic targets of the Syrian regime. These missiles are effective in attacks on major cities or strategic villages where the focus is on causing the greatest amount of destruction and putting pressure on the resistance.
• Targeting Field Sites: Short-range missiles often target advanced military sites and camps belonging to the opposition, helping the Syrian regime to strengthen its grip on key areas.                                            C. Humanitarian Impact:
• High accuracy with significant impact: The use of short-range missiles in civilian areas often results in massive damage, including casualties and destruction of property, and attacks on populated areas have been more severe, increasing civilian suffering and deepening the humanitarian crisis.

 

Concrete examples of the use of short-range missiles in Syria:

1. Attacks on Aleppo (2016-2017):

– Use of Fateh-110 missiles: During the major battle of Aleppo, Syrian regime forces used Fateh-110 missiles to strike areas under the control of the armed opposition. These missiles targeted civilian neighborhoods and resistance centers, resulting in widespread destruction and significant human losses. The attacks displaced large numbers of civilians and increased humanitarian suffering in the city.

2. Attacks on Eastern Ghouta (2018):

– Targeting residential areas: In Eastern Ghouta, Iranian short-range missiles, such as the Zolfaqar, were used to target residential areas and infrastructure. The attacks resulted in significant damage to buildings and hospitals, and imposed a suffocating siege on the besieged civilians. Continued short-range missile attacks have further deteriorated the humanitarian situation and led to mass displacement.

3. Attacks on Idlib (2019):

– Short-range ballistic missiles: In the summer of 2019, pro-regime forces targeted Idlib using short-range missiles. The attacks hit residential areas and markets, resulting in widespread destruction and civilian casualties. The missiles were used extensively to weaken the opposition’s defenses and dismantle its military capabilities.                                                                                                                        2. Long-range missiles:

1. Missiles used:

– Shahab-3: A medium-to-long-range ballistic missile with a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers, used to hit targets at longer distances.

– Cruise missiles: Iran has also developed cruise missiles that can hit targets at distances of up to 1,500 kilometers.

1. Military impact:

– Regional threat: Long-range missiles are used to achieve strategic goals beyond the confines of local conflict, such as threatening neighboring countries or affecting the regional balance of power. For example, Shahab-3 missiles can be used to target sites in Israel or the Gulf states from within Syrian territory.

– Targeting strategic sites: These missiles are used to hit sites of high importance, such as international coalition bases or strategic infrastructure, putting more pressure on international powers and prompting them to take defensive measures.

1. Humanitarian Impact:

– Long-range threat: Although long-range missiles are rarely used directly against civilian targets, their ability to hit strategic targets has indirect effects on the population, such as destroying vital facilities and causing population displacement.

 

Concrete examples of the use of long-range missiles in Syria:

1. Attack on the Tanf base (February 2018):

– Use of Shahab-3 missiles: In February 2018, Iran launched a Shahab-3 missile attack on the Tanf base operated by the international coalition forces. The attack targeted the base located in the eastern desert region of Syria, a strategic area that was used as a site for operations against ISIS. The long-range missile attack demonstrated Iran’s ability to threaten international forces from long distances.

2. Attacks on the K-1 base in northern Iraq (2021):

– Missiles launched from Iran: Although these attacks occurred in Iraq, they involved missiles that could also be used in Syria. The attacks on the K-1 base, which housed US troops, highlighted Iran’s ability to carry out cross-border missile operations, reflecting its ability to threaten international forces in the region.

 

3. Attacks on targets in northeastern Syria (2021-2022):

– Use of cruise missiles: In 2021 and 2022, Iran or its proxy militias used cruise missiles to target military sites in northeastern Syria. The attacks targeted international coalition bases and strategic infrastructure, causing significant damage and impacting coalition military operations               Comparison between short-range and long-range missiles:

– Range and accuracy: Short-range missiles focus on precision in close-range targets and directly affect sites close to the front lines. While long-range missiles are used to achieve targets at longer distances and have a greater impact on the regional level.

– Strategy and tactics: Short-range missiles are mainly used in daily battle tactics against opposition forces or to reinforce regime positions. Long-range missiles are used as part of larger strategies, aiming to achieve long-range effects on the regional level or against international forces.

– Humanitarian effects: Short-range missiles often cause greater damage to civilian areas near missile sites, while long-range missiles have a greater impact on strategic targets and cause indirect effects on civilians by targeting infrastructure.

Iranian missiles in Syria vary between short and long-range, and each type has specific effects and strategies for use. Short-range missiles are used to achieve tactical goals and enhance the military position of the Syrian regime, while long-range missiles play a role in achieving strategic goals and influencing the regional balance. Understanding these differences helps provide a clearer picture of how Iranian missiles have affected the conflict in Syria and the implications for regional stability.        International Responses and Policies to Confront Iranian Missile Threats in Syria

1. Military Responses:
2. Israel:

– Airstrikes: Israel has carried out a series of airstrikes on Iranian sites in Syria, such as the attack on the T4 airport in April 2018, which targeted Iranian facilities used to store weapons and guided missiles for pro-Iranian militias. These raids were aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to threaten Israel’s security from Syrian territory, and demonstrated Israel’s ability to carry out precise offensive operations against Iranian targets.

– Defensive Systems: Although the airstrikes reflect the offensive aspect, Israel has also strengthened its defenses with systems such as the Iron Dome and David’s Sling to intercept any missiles that might be launched from Syrian territory towards it. These systems have helped protect Israeli cities from Iranian missile attacks.

1. The US-led international coalition:

– Response to the attacks: In June 2021, the US-led international coalition responded to missile attacks by Iranian-backed militias on the Al-Tanf base in eastern Syria. The coalition has enhanced protection measures at the base and conducted intelligence operations to contain the growing threats.

– Military operations: The international coalition has bombed Iranian militia sites in northeastern Syria, as in the attack targeting Iranian-backed militias near Deir ez-Zor in August 2021. These operations were aimed at reducing the militias’ ability to threaten coalition forces.           

2. Diplomatic responses:
3. United States:

– Sanctions: The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran and on companies and individuals involved in developing and transferring missiles to Syria. These sanctions aim to reduce funding for Iranian military activities and prevent escalation of threats.

– Diplomacy: The United States is working to enhance cooperation with its allies in the region, including Arab countries and Israel, to confront Iranian threats. Diplomatic meetings and negotiations aim to coordinate in the field of intelligence and enhance regional security.

1. United Nations:

– Calls for calm: The United Nations has called for de-escalation in Syria through Security Council resolutions calling for a halt to the use of heavy weapons and missiles against civilian areas. Despite the challenges in implementing these resolutions, they reflect the efforts of the international community to reduce the humanitarian impact of the conflict.

1. Strategic measures and regional cooperation:
2. Regional cooperation:
3. Relations between the Gulf States and Israel:

– Security alliances: Following the escalation of Iranian threats, some Gulf States such as Bahrain have enhanced security cooperation with Israel. This cooperation includes the exchange of intelligence information on Iranian activities and missiles. Joint security meetings and defense cooperation have contributed to improving the response to Iranian threats.

1. Enhancing defense capabilities:

– Defense systems: Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, have purchased defense systems such as “THAAD” and “Patriot” to enhance their capabilities against Iranian missiles. These systems help counter potential missile attacks from Syrian territory and provide protection for vital areas.

2. Confrontation strategies:
3. “Deterrence” strategy:

– Enhancing deterrence: Enhancing strategic military capabilities to confirm deterrence against any missile attacks. The countries concerned are working to develop defensive and offensive strategies to deter Iran from using missiles in Syria against regional and international targets.

1. Monitoring and advanced technologies:

– Monitoring and technologies: Improving monitoring technologies to detect Iranian missiles and their methods of transport to Syria. Using advanced technology to monitor Iranian activities helps enhance defense capabilities and respond quickly to potential escalations.                

 

Impact on regional politics:                                                       

The ongoing Iranian threats have prompted regional countries to radically reassess their relationships and alliances. In the face of these threats, we have witnessed the strengthening of cooperation between Sunni countries and Israel, an unconventional alliance that has emerged as a strategic response to confront common threats. New security alliances and defense cooperation reflect a shift in regional politics, as these countries seek to protect themselves from Iranian escalation in Syria, creating a more coordinated and cooperative defense environment.

In a broader context, Iranian missiles contribute to the escalation of the regional conflict, further complicating the military situation in the region and leading to increased interventions by major powers and international organizations. These interventions are not only a result of the deteriorating security situation, but also to balance the growing Iranian influence in the region.

At the international level, major powers, such as the United States and Russia, have begun to adjust their strategies in response to Iranian threats. As the risks associated with Iranian missiles increase, we are likely to see significant adjustments in the foreign policies of these countries, including strengthening military interventions or seeking to reduce risks through regional stability.

As for international diplomacy, it is moving towards multilateral political solutions as a means of easing tensions. Major powers seek to find solutions through negotiations and political initiatives that can contribute to achieving sustainable peace in the region, which enhances stability and prevents continued military escalation.

 

Existing challenges in confronting Iranian missiles:

Military challenges: posed by Iranian missiles in Syria are complex and diverse. One of the most prominent of these challenges is the widespread deployment of these missiles in multiple areas, including remote and desert areas. This deployment makes the process of tracking and destroying missiles a difficult task for international powers, as Iranian missiles are strategically distributed, making it difficult for any force to target them effectively. In addition, Iran and its loyal militias rely on advanced protection and obfuscation technologies, as they use civilian facilities as missile launch sites. This method makes it difficult for international forces to direct precise strikes without causing civilian casualties, which increases the complexity of military operations against these missiles.

On the other hand, the continuous technological development of Iranian missiles poses new challenges to defense systems. Iran is investing heavily in improving the accuracy of guidance and increasing the range of its missiles, which increases the level of threat and makes it difficult to counter them. Despite the presence of advanced defense systems such as the Iron Dome and THAAD, the advanced technology possessed by Iranian missiles requires continuous investment in research and development to keep pace. Confronting these technical challenges requires continuous updating of defense systems to ensure their ability to confront these growing threats.

Political and diplomatic challenges: The challenges facing the confrontation of Iranian missile threats in Syria are intertwined with regional and international divisions. At the regional level, political differences emerge between countries on how to deal with Iran, as each country’s approach differs based on its own interests. These divisions hinder effective coordination efforts between allied countries to confront Iranian threats in a unified manner, which weakens the possibility of developing consistent strategies to counter Iranian influence in the region.

At the international level, tensions between major powers such as the United States and Russia add another dimension to the challenges. Geopolitical competition between these powers negatively affects the effectiveness of joint diplomatic efforts and limits the possibility of reaching international cooperation strategies to confront Iranian missile threats. The lack of international consensus weakens the ability to provide decisive and effective diplomatic responses.

On the other hand, humanitarian crises are raised as one of the biggest challenges associated with military operations against Iranian missile sites. Targeting these sites could lead to collateral damage that directly affects civilians, which necessitates a delicate balance between protecting national security and limiting humanitarian damage. This requires well-thought-out military strategies and careful monitoring to ensure that the safety of civilians is not compromised during military operations, which adds a sensitive dimension to every step taken on the ground.

 

Future Prospects:

Future strategies to counter Iranian missile threats depend on enhancing regional cooperation and developing advanced defense technologies. On the one hand, strengthening alliances between regional countries has become essential to confront these threats more effectively. Building broader alliances includes enhancing security cooperation and intelligence sharing, which contributes to improving the response to missile challenges and increases coordination between countries affected by Iranian influence. In addition, joint defense cooperation and developing unified defense strategies can lead to improving missile defense systems and enhancing monitoring and surveillance capabilities.

On the technological level, countering Iranian missiles requires investing in developing new defense systems and improving existing systems. Focusing on improving detection accuracy and rapid response is essential to enhancing the ability to counter missile threats. Innovation in the field of missile defense, such as laser and electromagnetic weapons technologies, may also provide more effective future solutions to confront the advanced missiles used by Iran.

With regard to future diplomatic efforts, there is a need to enhance international negotiations with the aim of reaching agreements that limit the development and transfer of Iranian missiles. International agreements can play an important role in reducing regional escalation and reducing threats. In addition, increasing international pressure on Iran through diplomatic sanctions could help curb its missile programs.

Supporting humanitarian efforts in affected areas is essential to mitigate the effects of the conflict on civilians. Improving the humanitarian situation enhances stability and reduces the long-term impact of the conflict. Finally, strengthening international oversight to monitor Iranian missile activities will help ensure compliance with agreements and prevent the escalation of regional threats, which contributes to enhancing security and stability in the region.

 

Future expectations and trends:

Expectations of escalation or de-escalation fluctuate between several possibilities linked to current developments in the region. In terms of escalation, it seems that Iran may continue to enhance its missile capabilities, by developing new technologies and increasing its investments in long-range missiles. This trend could lead to an escalation of tensions in the future, especially if Iran increases its missile launches from advanced sites inside Syria. With every step Iran takes towards improving its military infrastructure, the level of regional threat increases, which could open the door to additional international interventions and a broader escalation of the conflict.

On the other hand, there are opportunities for de-escalation through diplomatic efforts, as international negotiations could contribute to reducing escalation. Cooperation between major powers such as the United States and Russia, and regional states affected by Iranian missile threats, could open the way for peaceful solutions. These efforts could lead to agreements that contribute to calming the situation and reducing military tensions in the region, which would enhance the prospects for regional stability.

As for the long-term effects, future strategies developed to confront Iranian missiles will have a profound impact on regional stability. Improving defense strategies and developing effective monitoring systems could help enhance long-term security. At the same time, achieving progress in diplomatic efforts could help reduce the chances of future escalation.

At the international level, developments in the Iranian conflict and the effects of missiles could leave their mark on relations between major powers and regional states. Effectively managing these threats and crises could improve international cooperation and strengthen relations between states, which would enhance long-term stability.

 

Field Evidence of Iranian Weapons in Eastern Syria

Warehouses and Storage

Iranian militias in Syria are considered one of the most prominent parties that possess a large arsenal of weapons. Although it has huge warehouses and lathes for manufacturing mortars and rockets locally, its use of long-range missiles has been very limited. From time to time, ballistic missiles have been launched from areas such as the Akashat crossing, in addition to local missiles from the desert extending between Al-Mayadeen and Al-Ashara, but with the repeated targeting of its bases by coalition forces and their heavy losses, Iran was forced to change its strategy.

The largest weapons depots of the Iranian militias are concentrated in the “Fatimiyoun” camps in the city of Palmyra. These warehouses contain all types of missiles, including Russian missiles.

As for the other important warehouses, they are the Ayyash warehouses, which were damaged as a result of Israeli and American raids, but they still represent a focal point for assembling missiles before distributing them. These warehouses are protected by tunnels and underground rooms to avoid targeting, and part of the 137th Brigade has been converted into a weapons warehouse and a training site away from the supervision of coalition forces.

In Deir Ezzor, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards militia has complete control over large areas, including Port Said Street, and the eastern neighborhoods such as Al-Ummal and Al-Rusafa, where the militias have established dozens of centers and weapons warehouses between Harabesh and Al-Mayadeen, all the way to Deir Ezzor Military Airport.

Tunnels

The tunnels that ISIS began digging in the Rahba and Al-Mayadeen castles are one of the most important means used by the Iranian militias to store weapons and protect them from targeting. These tunnels are protected by strict security measures, as the areas surrounding the castle have been transformed into security zones, with elements disguised as shepherds placed in them to avoid being targeted.

The most important militia centers in Albukamal

Weapons depots are spread among civilians in Albukamal, posing a great danger to them.

Among the most prominent of these depots is an ammunition store located in a civilian area on the outskirts of the city, which is under the protection of the Pakistani “Zainabiyoun” militia. In addition, the militia uses Albukamal’s schools as ammunition depots and military barracks.

In addition to these sites, there are also smaller depots in civilian areas, some of which are under the protection of “Hezbollah”. There is another depot at the western entrance to Albukamal, inside a checkpoint controlled by the “Zainabiyoun” militia.

In addition, there are larger military depots, such as a depot set up in a hospital that has been transformed into a main military headquarters for the 47th Regiment of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is considered an important strategic site.

Al-Mayadeen

The situation in Al-Mayadeen city is slightly different from Al-Bukamal due to the presence of Russian forces, which prompted Iran to reduce its headquarters in the city center and move to the desert and the outskirts of the city. However, some Iranian headquarters remain active inside the city, such as the Abdul Moneim Riad School, which was converted into a headquarters for the Revolutionary Guards and a garage for its vehicles, due to its proximity to the Euphrates River and Al-Mayadeen Bridge.

Although Aisha School on Al-Arbaeen Street was severely damaged, it was the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards before they were recently withdrawn from it. The militias also used the Industrial School as a warehouse and a field hospital before the hospital was moved to Al-Arbaeen Street, where the “Al-Shifa” Hospital was opened in a seized civilian house.

 

Types of missiles

In 2022, the Iranian militias introduced a group of “Burkan” missiles, through the leader Abu Ali Al-Karawi, and they were distributed in Al-Mayadeen and hidden in multiple warehouses. During the same period, Iran introduced a variety of ballistic missiles, and this batch of weapons was the largest to be introduced into Syria so far.

The second batch of missiles was brought into Syria during Iran’s exploitation of the earthquake incident, under the pretext of providing aid to the Syrian people. This batch included equipment for manufacturing local shells and missiles.

The missiles used by Iran vary as follows:

1. Ballistic missiles: used to a limited extent.
2. Russian Katyusha rockets: Iran obtained them from Russia or from the warehouses of the Syrian regime.
3. Local short- and medium-range missiles: used extensively due to their low cost.
4. Thermal missiles: used at confrontation points with the Syrian opposition factions and in the desert.
5. Missiles carried on drones: used inside Iranian drones or booby-trapped aircraft.

 

Final Look

Iran’s missile arsenal in Syria is one of the most significant security challenges facing the region and the world today. Through its extensive support for the Syrian regime and the provision of advanced weapons and missile capabilities, Iran is significantly complicating and prolonging the Syrian conflict, increasing the suffering of civilians and heightening regional tensions.

Iranian missiles, both short- and long-range, not only exacerbate humanitarian crises but also pose a direct threat to regional and international security. Attacks on military sites of the international coalition forces, the ongoing escalation against Israeli forces, and the direct impact on stability in the Middle East demonstrate the vital role of these weapons in Iran’s strategy.

Intensive military and diplomatic efforts are being made to confront these challenges. From Israeli airstrikes to military responses by the international coalition, from sanctions imposed on Iran to diplomatic efforts by the United Nations, the strategies to counter them are diverse, reflecting the great importance of this issue. However, many challenges remain, from the difficulty of tracking and destroying Iranian missiles to regional divisions and international tensions that hinder effective coordination.

The future requires strengthening regional and international cooperation, developing advanced defense strategies, and investing in new technological solutions. It is also essential to support diplomatic efforts to reach agreements that limit escalation and contribute to regional stability. Ultimately, addressing Iran’s missile threats in Syria requires a comprehensive and thoughtful response that combines military force and diplomatic solutions, with an emphasis on achieving a balance between regional security and humanity. The success of these efforts depends on effective cooperation between the countries and parties concerned, and on providing continued support for peace and stability in the region.