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The military, economic and strategic importance of the province of Deir Ezzor scramble with each other, making it the attractive pole of all conflicting parties in Syrian square. Some see in this province that lies in the Syrian east as the gate of control over Syria, and other players think that it will be the turning point which will redraw the maps of the entire Middle East. With the acceleration of the battle of Raqqa, Daesh has begun to retreat and gradually withdrawing to Deir Ezzor , which will be its last stronghold. The conflict over this province bring with it several scenarios that could find for themselves a foothold in the upcoming events.
Military forces that would head to Deir Ezzor:
There are many military factions that prepare themselves for the hour of the monastery in Deir Ezzor, but the intention is different. Daesh is fighting and being expelled from Syria definitively.
– The Jaysh Assud Sharqiya and the forces of Martyr Ahmed al-Abado:
Jaysh Assud Sharqiyah is the model faction to take over Deir Ezzor Governorate after retreat of the organization. This is because for many reasons, the most important of which are most the Jaysh Assud Sharqiya is a Free Syrian Army faction and its commitment to the principles of the revolution and its rejection of extremism. The faction is dominated by the locals of Deir Ezzor and its estimated number is 1,500, the presence of which is concentrated in the Syrian al-Hamad and eastern Qalamon.
-Jaysh Maghawir Thawra
It is also a moderate faction directly supported by the US Army, the majority of its fighters from Deir ez-Zor, and they are present in Tanaf border crossing.
. It is noteworthy that the Maghawir experience is not far-reaching in the process of attacking Daesh in Deir Ezzor in the past year, the New Syrian Army (the old name of the Maghawir) has attacked the organization Iin the city of Al-Bukamal coming from the desert, after storming it from several neighborhoods and managing to expel the organization from these neighborhoods for several hours, but it failed to stay in the city due to many reasons, forcing it to withdraw hours after his attack.
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Syrian Democratic Forces “SDF”:
The militia of SDF, whose composition relies mainly on the Kurdish component of its backbone, is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the Syrian branch of the Turkish Kurdistan Workers ‘ Party (PKK). It is directly supported by the White House of the United States. It includes militias, including some factions from the Arab component, such as the tribes of Aljazeera and Raqqa and Mayname who are operating under the command of the Military Council of Deir Ezzor led by Ahmad Abu Khawlah.
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Nukhbah Forces:
It is an FSA formation led by a local from Deir Ezzor, known to everyone as “Abu Saleh al-Shaayti, a prominent leader in the former FSA branch of Deir Ezzor. The number of its manpower is estimated at 1,400 from Hasakeh, Deir Ezzor and Raqqa. It receives support directly from the Syrian Future , led by the former Syrian opposition coalition chairman, Ahmed al-Jarba. Nukhbah Forces operate under the command of Euphrates Shield, which is designed to liberate Raqqa, and coordinates its operations with the SDF, especially near Deir Ezzor.
The area from which the troops will proceed towards Deir Ezzor:
Daesh is expected to be attacked in Deir ez-Zor from two main fronts:
Southern front:
Maghawir Thawra and Jaysh Assud Sharqiyah are stationed in the south with the forces of MartyrAhmed al-Abdou, where they are in fierce battles in Al-Badia against the forces of the Assad and Iranian Shiite militias.
Ahmed Abdou Forces and Assud Sharqiyah were appointed to Deir ez-Zor in preparation for the start of the liberation battle and the desert of Deir Ezzor will be their starting point.
Northern front:
The SDF will continue to push Daesh to retreat to Deir Ezzor. The Nukhbah Forceswill also in the liberation of Deir Ezzor.
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Renegade Colonel of the army of Assad and military expert Fayez al-Asmar follows that:
“From my point of view there is a blundering in the American position whether by old or new administration towards the forces on the ground. The Americans support some of the FSA factions, but in return they support the Shiite militias on the Syrian-Iraqi border, although they bombed a crowd of them inside Syria but they still support outside the country. The Americans worked on cutting the border in the desert. From my military vision of the events, I see that the Assad regime has benefited from the areas of tension reduction and has increased its weight in the Badia region to serve as a springboard for its operations with a view to control Deir Ezzor. The Assad regime will seek to control Deir Ezzor to expand its geographical control and thus impose its political conditions on the opposition, especially since it has taken control of many villages south-west of Raqqa.
The Battle of the Liberation Monastery of the opposition factions will be launched from the northern administrative border of Dirzaur from the area of Merdeh and Abu Wood through the forces Arab who are there as elite forces and the Euphrates shield factions and completely ruled out that Syria’s democratic forces would intervene in the Battle of Diralzur.
An important additional point to be illuminated is the formation of the Syrian popular crowd militia formed from the fold tribes of Hasakeh under the leadership of Ali Hawass and the management of several tribal personalities such as Muhammad al-Faris – Fayez Al Sayed NAMs the idea of the faction was to simulate the Iraqi popular crowd as a synonym for the Syrian army in order to control the desert and the eastern region with Iranian support, “said Colonel Al-Asmar.
Anticipated scenarios for the Battle of Deir ez-Zor:
Amir al-Aabbad, a journalist on Al Jazeera and one of Dermot, speaks of his expectations of events in the next phase.
He says:
“I think things are not yet clear in Deir Ezzor and there is not yet an international decision in favour of who will be the legacy of ISIL from oil, gas and under the protection of any country, Deir ez-Zor will tend to maintain the richest oil resources, manpower and agriculture in Syria.
Currently, the drums of war are ringing on the gates of in Al-Badiyah among all the protagonists, as Assad’s forces and allied militias have set a foothold presented r in the direction of Deir Ezzor after opening an international road between Damascus and Baghdad, close to the American base at TANF, this the Iranian circumvention of the American presence has yet to be resolved as the United States will continue to approach Isis in the desert and then the target then Al-Bukamal – here is the American support for the Maghawir Thawrah – or it will withdraw under Russian pressure to wet in Iraq or To Al-Shadadi in Hasakeh to open new battlefronts against the organization from a new flank towards Deir Ezzor.
But in my view, Isis’s collapse in Deir ez-Zor, the last of its strongholds in eastern Syria and western Iraq, will ignite a war, especially if the Americans have targeted the Assad and Iranian militias more than once in the desert, leaving dozens of dead and wounded.
The intention of the Assad regime and of his successor Iranians is control of Deir ez-Zor, it is the region that can secure the strategic route of Tehran, which links Baghdad to Damascus via the Badia to Lebanon, but the Iranian ambition is currently facing the US project aimed at controlling for two prime objectives, the first is to help its allies in Israel and Jordan, to sabotage the Iranian scheme and deprive it of this path, and secondly to control oil and gas fields. ”
Several variables and at all levels await the governorate of Diralzur. Perhaps the most important of these are:
Politically “:
Deir Ezzor governorate is of great strategic importance t as described by the British times 《berlin 》the conflict in Syria and its control will determine the fate of the Middle East for years to come as the allies of Berlin, formerly the province of Deir Ezzor, will be the focal area of one of the conflicting poles (United States, Iran or Russia), the main supporters of the warring factions.
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n this context, Professor Moath Sarraj says: (The hadeeth about Deir ez-Zor is focused recently, given the anticipated money for the Mosul and Raqqa battles that are nearing the end and therefore will probably witness other major battles on ISIS, but it is even more important that it will open up more seriously on the future of the political solution in Syria, the battle of the monastery will not be longer than it needs Americans to understand the parties by political and military means to stop their hands from the area expected to be an American influence zone.
Daesh, in turn, will not hold its long positions and will withdraw as military pressure intensifies, especially as it is not locally accepted due to the unprecedented devastation, destruction and displacement of the people. Thus, the road will be paved for the SDF and its Arab allies to restore the province under the American cover as expected. If these expectations are true, then the fate of the Dir-Zor administration will be reflected, especially with the presence of the Assad regime, which still controls several neighborhoods of the city and retains important military positions, most notably the military airport.
It is unlikely that the regime of Assad, whose presence will remain a major dilemma and a heavy political and military campaign, especially on the people of the province who resisted the lion is heavily and endured very heavy losses that are difficult to compensate for. Therefore, the removal of the remnants of the Assad regime and its influence in the governorate and then the eastern region will be their top priority. )
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Civilians:
The international coalition has made its alleged anti-Daesh campaign as a pretext that transcends all norms relating to human rights and the protection of civilians. In one raid, 270 civilians were killed and confessed to be wrong. The same happened in Al-Tabaqah where a coalition air raid targeted a school for internally displaced persons, resulting in more than 74 civilian casualties and the mistake is also according to what was said by an official from the coalition forces in Deir ez-Zor, it might be a little different because of overpopulation. In the province, more than one million and four hundred thousand “1,400” were sheltered from Deir ez-Zor and in addition to displaced persons from other governorates such as Raqqa and Mosul.
This is a major threat to the lives of these civilians from the practices of the international coalition, which does not provide any kind of weapon in the bombardment of ISIS-controlled areas. The use of phosphorous bombs released in Raqqa in recent times is probably the best example of the alliance’s barbarism and its lack of consideration for the lives of civilians. Moreover, Deir ez-Zor will be the last refuge for Isis in Syrian territory, making it a defence to fight “His presence is likely to be used for the cities as Shields against coalition incursions and attacks by attacking forces foreshadows catastrophic massacres against civilians.
Economically:
Deir ez-Zor province, located in eastern Syria, is one of the richest Syrian governorates for its inner riches, such as the oil fields, which are estimated to be tens and months old (the field of age, the field of Tim, the field of roses, the tank field in exchange for natural gas, such as the plant of Koniko and the Al Jafra Field Laboratory, which makes the province the object of the greed of all the conflicting factions and the conflict between the groups interested in carrying out its project, such as Kurdish militias and the Iranian Shiite mob.
Militarily:
Deir ez-Zor Governorate is lurking in many international players with projects, and Kurdish forces are seeking control of Deir ez-Zor to support which seeks to establish the Kurdistan region of Syria and a link in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (al-Shi’ah) through control of Deir ez-Zor, burial and including it under its Shiite pilgrimage from its adjacent to the Syrian borders a strong point in applying its project as well as the presence of Syrian Army concentration points Alasadi in Deir ez-Zor, who is known for his dependence on the Iranian Shi’a, and here we enclose part of a series of articles written by journalists They are affiliated with the Assad regime, where they talked about the goal of Assad’s forces and their allies in Dirzur. “Al-Sokhna is one of the strongest ISIS military concentrations in al-Badia Syrian and the control of the army will have to open the way for it to be swift and dramatic, leading the advanced forces towards the eastern al-Haer palace to isolate a human mountain.
Then, the departure of the Cabla and the Shubra (Rif Deir Alzor southwest) in record time. The two were the key to the expansion of the extremist organization from Deir ez-Zor to the center of the country as it ascended to the “Nusra Front” account three years ago. The Deir ez-Zor in the Syrian army’s balance is the greatest strategic goal that the plans and paths of the Badia battles seek to achieve as soon as possible. This detail leads to an observation of additional importance to the operations of the army in the southern countryside, which is based on the quest to launch along the southern administrative border of Raqqa east towards Deir ez-Zor as well.
A noteworthy observation of the Army’s entry into the country’s uplifted countryside allies is that the advanced forces have sought to install control points that will achieve the greatest possible contact with the «Syrian Democratic Forces», in particular, the military operations launched by the army against al-Qaeda south of Manbij (northeast Aleppo). All these tracks cannot be separated from the ongoing military operations on the border strip between Syria and Iraq, ”
Only Deir ez-Zor factions located in the south, such as the Eastern Black Army, the revolutionary Guerrilla army or those stationed in the north, as elite and eastern free, are their target. The president to liberate their land and regain their right from the hands of ISIS and then expel the Assad forces from all over the province, saying the renegade officer of the regime forces,
Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Al-Dissident Mohammed al-Aboud, former leader of the Revolutionary Council in Dirzur, believes that in the Battle of Dirzur the lion’s share of America will be represented by its partners.
Al-Aboud believes that the Raqqa scenario will be repeated there with attempts from the Assad and Iran’s sectarian militias backed by a special Russian air cover that ISIL she left the nail of Juha in the centre of Deir ez-Zor city so that the Russians and their henchmen would not be denied registration as participants in the expulsion of terrorism from the region. ”
The Abbud adds:
“I do not believe definitively that there will be a role for any supported forces of Turkey in the liberation of Deir ez-Zor, the chances of Deir ez-Zor factions in the south to take part in the battle to expel Isil have become virtually non-existent after the road has been cut off by an Iranian-Russian American, unfortunately.
The governorate of Deir ez-Zor is characterized by the clan tissue that many enemies of the Syrian people have taken as a rope for the deepening of the disintegration and division of the People’s components, since the reign of the Assad regime down to the base and finally not least is the use of Isil in Deir ez-Zor to maximize its blackness as an advocate against clans that have refused to undergo it, which has generated affected situations that will be seriously revealed and mother after the demise of the organization.
The blood that was asked by the organization and its supporters from the Syrian people will not be punished by it, which makes it imperative for the power to take over the reins. In Deir ez-Zor after ISIL to be highly rigorous and assertive and aware of the nature of the people of Deir ez-Zor this thing is missing by all the powers from outside Deir ez-Zor. The order which nominates the conservative people and their factions to lead the county to safety. There is great apprehension over the dominance of Kurdish protection units or Shiite militias that will have negative consequences in the province that could lead to new wars and renewed uprisings that would perpetuate the blood waterfall in
